NEWS | RATING ACTION: MOODY'S CHANGES INDONESIA'S BA2 SOVEREIGN CREDIT OUTLOOK TO POSITIVE - Moody's Investor Services - Moody's Investor Services
Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook on Indonesia's Ba2
local- and foreign-currency sovereign ratings to positive, from stable. The
improvement in the outlook also applies to Indonesia's Ba1 foreign currency
bond ceiling and Ba3 foreign currency deposit ceiling.
The positive outlook broadly reflects the country's capacity for sustained
strong growth, the overall stability and effectiveness of its fiscal and
monetary policies, and expectations of further improvements in the
government's financial and debt position.
"The core of Indonesia's growth story is driven by a large domestic market
that is appropriately managed by a well-tested economic policy framework,"
says Mr. Aninda Mitra, Moody's Vice-President and its lead sovereign analyst
for Indonesia.
"A series of external disturbances, culminating -most recently- in
instability in several European sovereign debt markets, have had no serious
implications on Indonesia's credit fundamentals --which remain on an
improving trend," adds Mitra.
He also notes that the government remains committed to political and
financial stability. This is underscored by its concerted crackdown against
terrorist groups. And recent appointments and nominations at the finance
ministry and at the central bank are supportive of policy continuity and
institutional credibility.
Investigations into the alleged irregularities in the bailout of Bank
Century represents primarily an internal political struggle within the
ruling coalition. Nonetheless, fiscal and monetary policy management remains
unaffected and incremental progress in structural reforms, in several key
areas, is still likely ," says Mitra.
According to Mitra, the improving trajectory of Indonesia's sovereign rating
incorporates the significant reduction in the government's debt burden and
its fiscal financing requirements relative to many ratings peers. It also
reflects the ongoing diversification seen in the government's sources of
fiscal funding.
"However, in the future, the deepening of domestic capital markets --which
include a larger role for a reliable domestic institutional funding base--
could lend greater stability and structurally improve the government's
market access, as well as help sustain the positive momentum in sovereign
ratings," says Mitra.
The increase in Indonesia's foreign currency reserves is also notable, while
better prospects for foreign direct investment could sustain further
improvements in the overall external position in line with its sovereign
ratings peers. Moreover, access to exceptional funds from the Chiang Mai
multilateral initiative, in the event of need, is another supportive
development for the ratings.
"Improvements in the level and composition of the government's debt, if
accompanied by sustained improvement of the country's external position, or
a deepening of domestic markets, would be the most likely triggers for a
future upgrade," says Mitra.
Lastly, "the recent widening of the overnight interest rate corridors, and
greater restrictions on the holding period of Bank Indonesia securities'
(SBI) holdings are ratings neutral as it does not fundamentally restrict the
timely and comprehensive servicing of credit obligations," says Mitra.
Moody's last rating action on Indonesia was on September 16, 2009, when the
sovereign rating was upgraded to Ba2 with a stable outlook.
The principal methodology used in rating the government of the Republic of
Indonesia is "Moody's Sovereign Bond Methodology", published in September
2008, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies
sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and
factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer
can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's
website.
Press Release dari Moody's Investor Services.
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